Bettors Are Better Than Prognosticators at Predicting Elections, Says Kevin O'Leary
Date: 2024-08-13 Author: Alex Crawford Categories: SPORTS BETTING, PEOPLE
In a recent interview on Fox News, O'Leary suggested that bettors who place bets on elections have a better understanding of what is happening and can more accurately predict the outcome of elections than traditional polling companies. He noted that this is especially true for bettors in Las Vegas, who, according to him, have an "almost mystical" understanding of the election results.
There is, however, a nuance that O'Leary misses. Nevada prohibits betting on political events, which casts doubt on his claims. The historical data he cites cannot be based on bets made in Las Vegas, since they simply do not take place.
There is a strong resistance to the idea of betting on political events in the United States as a whole. Representatives of both parties support a ban on such bets, considering them unacceptable. However, despite this, bets can really help researchers and analysts better understand the real situation on the ground.
But the main question is whether political betting markets can really predict the outcome of elections. History shows that in some cases they succeed. For example, despite the confidence of many polls in Hillary Clinton's victory in 2016, political bettors guessed Donald Trump's victory. And in 2020, the same bettors predicted Joe Biden's victory.
As of today, according to the Polymarket platform, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz have the highest chances of winning the upcoming election - their chances are estimated at 52%. At the same time, the chances of Donald Trump, who was previously considered the favorite, have dropped to 46%. However, O'Leary notes that it is too early to draw final conclusions.
He admits that it is currently impossible to accurately predict the outcome of the election. The political debate and what happens next will play a key role in shaping public opinion and the final outcome.
But regardless of the outcome, O'Leary believes the Harris-Trump debate will be a real TV show, no matter who wins.
